3 Comments

Great review Nate! I would love to check out this book

Most markets on metaculus take a long time to resolve. While people can trade their bets before they settle, do you think the long-settlement prevents more liquidity from flowing into these markets?

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ya that + theres like the time value of money argument although platforms like IBKR, now Kalshi (but just election markets) and others are giving interest on shares in markets which should help with longer term bets.

Manifold has tried (although no longer has as they moved to sweepstakes) lending against positions https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Manifold-the-ultimate-Virtual-Economy-5639290cb459430f87a3ffa37b0ca7d1#09cd40ac845d494bb66922ff6356c501 and polymarket has explored it as well https://github.com/Polymarket/PolyLend

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ah interesting. thanks for sharing! having all in markets money earn a yield makes sense ( converting in market money to yield-generating assets like steth). however, loan seems somewhat risky to me? since the share prices are so volatile

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